Is Your Thinking Too Linear To Succeed?
A Guide to Outmaneuvering Competitors with Intuition and Insight in VUCA markets.
“We live in a non-linear world. In other words, it's going to give us irregular and erratic behavior. We've got to live with that. We know that. And those people who are good businessmen or good fighter pilots or whatever else, know that. And they know how to deal with it. And they know it isn't easy. But that's the nature of the world we live in. It's kind of interesting. We're looking at the world from a very general perspective. We're folding in these other things, and they lead us to that same conclusion. The nature of the world we live in. We can either be destroyed by it or take advantage of it, or work with it.”1
John Boyd, “Conceptual Spiral”
The OODA "loop" sketch, as John Boyd envisioned it, is often misunderstood. It's not a simple, sequential process. It's not a checklist of Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. Those who treat it as such—rigid and linear—find themselves unprepared for VUCA. Worse, they become predictable, slow, and incapable of adapting. In today's dynamic markets, that's a recipe for failure. Let your competitors do that. Instead, try to learn the OODA "loop" sketch as Boyd explained, illustrated, and taught it.
Rigid thinking is the enemy of adaptability. A linear approach to OODA reduces Boyd's ideas to a mechanical process. This rigidity makes teams predictable, telegraphing their actions long before they act. Predictability is both a weakness and a target in markets where competitors innovate rapidly. Innovative companies thrive because they act in ways others can't anticipate, constantly shifting the game. Meanwhile, slower, more rigid companies struggle to keep up. They adhere to outdated strategies and time-consuming decision-making processes, amplify their own friction, and reduce their capacity for free and independent action. They might say, “Speed is the goal. If we move faster, complete the loop quicker, we will dominate opponents through velocity.”2 However, the reduced goal of “speed” is a shallow understanding of Boyd's work. True speed is a byproduct, not the aim. The true power of understanding the OODA "loop" sketch lies in adaptability. Adaptability empowers leaders and teams to constantly reshape orientation, see what others can't, and act decisively. Consider the rise of AI-driven decision-making. The winners in this space aren't those racing to adopt technology the fastest. They're the ones who adapt their thinking and leverage AI to reframe the competitive landscape.
But linear OODA approaches do something far worse than slowing you down. They dismiss, downplay, and disregard the power of orientation. Orientation is more than a "step." It's everything. It shapes what you see, how you interpret it, and how you decide, act, and learn. It combines your experience, culture, biases, psychology, and emotions. Companies that don't invest in cultivating a rich, dynamic Orientation fall into blind spots. They need to see shifts in customer needs or emerging threats from more agile competitors. Blockbuster didn't fail because it moved too slowly. It failed because its leaders couldn't grasp the changing world of digital streaming, even when Netflix was right in front of it.
Equally damaging is the neglect of "Implicit Guidance and Control." Boyd's OODA "loop" sketch isn't a straight line; it's an interconnected system. "Implicit Guidance and Control" allows for intuitive, seamless action. It lets experienced teams enjoy free and independent action without hesitation, even in VUCA. Think of an elite crisis communication team during an emergency. The best don't look to implement a simple step-by-step process. They adapt in real-time, relying on a deep understanding of evolving situations. Those who relied on rigid, linear decision-making floundered, overwhelmed by the sheer speed of change.
The dangers of linear thinking are everywhere in today's markets. Companies focus on efficiency metrics instead of innovation. They optimize processes without questioning whether those processes are still relevant. They cling to outdated playbooks while competitors rewrite the rules.
Leaders must ask themselves:
Are we seeing the world as it is or as it was?
Are we acting with clarity and adaptability, or are we stuck in old patterns, moving fast but along a failing path?
The OODA "loop" sketch is not about speed for its own sake. It's about building a framework of thinking that empowers individuals and teams to thrive in uncertainty. It's about learning to see, think, and act with differentiation and decisiveness when it matters most. The VUCA markets of today demand nothing less.
So, as a leader, where do you stand?
Are your strategies rigid or adaptive?
Is your orientation evolving with the world, or are you stuck in the past?
Are you empowering your team to act with implicit understanding, or do outdated processes bog them down?
Are you preparing for a future shaped by VUCA or longing for a simplicity that no longer exists?
The answers will determine whether you thrive or defeat your competitors.
John Boyd, “Conceptual Spiral,” presented in 1993 to SpaceCast2020. You may download it here: https://www.aglx.com/john-boyds-conceptual-spiral-full-transcript
What is described as “speed” is, in fact, “haste.” You want your competitors to run on and react with haste. Think of speed as a byproduct of deliberate action with direction and focus. Without direction and focus that is attended to reality, how “fast” you are going won’t matter. In “Patterns of Conflict,” Boyd describes speed as Rapidity, and it was always to be accompanied by Variety, Harmony, and Initiative. His acronym was VHRI: Variety, Harmony, Rapidity, Initiative.