Why Fake Metrics Are Destroying America’s Institutions: Campbell’s Law Explained
How the Guardians of Decay Use Data Theater to Hide Institutional Failure
CAMPBELL’S LAW:
"The more any quantitative social indicator is used for decision-making, the more it will be subject to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort the social processes it is intended to monitor."1
—Donald T. Campbell2
In every decaying institution, there comes a moment when the truth is no longer measured, only performed. This is the moment when the Guardians Of Decay step in.
They do not rescue. They do not repair. They perform. And their costume is data.
Campbell's Law isn't just a warning about misused statistics. It is a diagnostic code used to recognize when a system has lost contact with reality. It describes the exact moment when an institution shifts from function to theater,3 when the numbers don't reflect the mission but replace it. In Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW), this shift is fatal. In 5GW, where perception is the terrain, metrics become the primary weapon of illusion.
The Guardians of Decay thrive in this illusion. They rely on metrics to achieve three key objectives: maintain narrative control, signal institutional virtue, and secure access to funding and status. A good number is their shield. A well-framed graph is their sword.
They don't cling to metrics because they believe them. They cling because, without them, they'd be exposed and would collapse.
Campbell’s Law exposes this collapse with surgical precision: once a metric becomes the basis for decisions, it stops reflecting reality and starts reshaping it. From that point on, the system no longer measures truth, it manufactures it.
Here is how they perform within institutional decay:
Schools chase test scores while literacy drops.
Police lower crime stats by reclassifying homicides.
Newsrooms boost engagement while trust evaporates.
Nonprofits hit "equity goals" while social cohesion fractures.
Corporations improve ESG scores while real productivity collapses.
Every number goes up except the one that matters: trust.
Most corrupted systems chase abstract metrics: what looks good. This occurs at the expense of real outcomes: what actually works. Mastering Campbell’s Law lets you reorient the mission back to substance over scoreboard:
– Learning instead of test scores
– Readiness instead of PowerPoint slides
– Trust instead of engagement rates
When the metric becomes the goal, meaning is lost. Understanding Campbell’s Law brings it back.
Leaders and Operators in 5GW must train to identify this institutional data theater in real time. Learning and understanding Campbell's Law is how you do it. It teaches you to treat institutional metrics not as evidence but as signals of strategic dysfunction. The more the Guardian Of Decay celebrates a measurement, the more likely it is that the measurement has been corrupted to defend institutional decay.
For an Operator in 5GW, that's a cue.
It means the dashboard has replaced the mission. It means the actors are reciting numbers instead of solving problems. It means the system is lying beautifully, confidently, and measurably.
Understanding Campbell's Law gives you the ability to pierce that mask.
It helps you separate noise from signal. It enables you to predict where moral posturing will be employed to conceal failure. It trains you to think like an adversary: to see how institutions have restructured their incentive systems not to serve but to survive.
You don't argue with the metric. You expose the frame behind it.
You use the Guardian Of Decay's performance against them. You reveal that the institution is not improving; instead, it's acting as if it's. And once the audience sees the act, the spell breaks.
Mastering Campbell’s Law is perception armor. And it also can be a competitive tool. Leaders and Operators can use it to jam systems addicted to measurement, redirect focus from abstraction back to real outcomes, and force adversaries to defend illusions they can no longer sustain.
The more loudly a Guardian Of Decay cites data, the more urgently you should ask: what is being hidden?
Because where the metric is the goal, the mission is already lost.
Understanding Campbell's Law doesn't just help you decode lies. It enables you to build truth-resistant systems, structures that favor real outcomes over reputation management. That's how you outlast the Guardians Of Decay.
The Leaders and Operators who understand Campbell's Law don't just see through the mask.
They know when the mask has become the face.
In institutions addicted to metrics and dashboards, the most dangerous person is the one who knows what reality actually looks like.
That’s who we are!
Campbell, Donald T (1979). "Assessing the impact of planned social change". Evaluation and Program Planning.
Donald T. Campbell, American social scientist.
I am calling this “Institutional Data Theater.” And the concept is not limited to social indicators. Any metric that becomes the mission can be described this way. I intend to publish more on this sharing some of my observations from years of corporate experience.
Reminds me also of Goodhart’s Law: any metric that becomes a target ceases to be a good a good metric.
A PERFECT EXAMPLE was our use of metrics in Afghanistan. SIGAR reports have shown over and over and over that the US military *consistently* used BS metrics in a vain attempt to demonstrate success. They were using the amount of money they deployed as a metric of success!!!! Insanity!!!!
I think your post is generally right on the money.
I would push back with on school test scores, however. To your point, though, failing schools will try to find all kinds of metrics to distract from low test scores, which cannot be manipulated or re-framed. Good schools produce students who do well on standardized tests.
There is a reason that teacher’s unions attack test scores—they shine a spotlight on failure.
Try to find a school with below average test scores but whose students thrive after graduation. They may exist, but it’s probably for reasons unrelated to the school—like most students work in the local factory and do fine after graduation.
I don’t think all data is the enemy. I think it can be part of the “map.” But it’s about finding simple and relevant metrics that aren’t easily manipulated—they are a real measurement of effectiveness, not an easily manipulated measure of performance. For a business this is probably something like simple margins or free cash flow. Again to your point, business that stress about increasing social media engagement and NPS are probably chasing the wrong things.
In conclusion, I largely agree with some important caveats. Great work, Mark!
I used to lead a seminar at a military college. The seminar was qualitative in nature, we didn't have metrics. A new boss came in at the top level and wanted to measure the course's impact.
I pushed back and suggested they (and the folks designing the survey) spend a day with me on the obstacle course we used to facilitate the seminar. I wanted them to "feel" the impact, to see the "aha" moments the/my cadets experienced.
They refused. "We have your curriculum," they said.
The last meeting on this I was invited to (my Commander told me my presence was no longer required after this one), I told them, "You cannot measure this impact, particularly without experiencing it."
I lost the battle but told my CC, "Sir, there's going to be a day I'm called on the carpet for a low rating due to factors outside my control."
I was assured that wouldn't happen.
The survey was created and issued to each student.
One day about two months later, I was called on the carpet to explain a lower than average rating.
"Weather," I said, "that day was about two degrees above our knock it off threshold."
"I can't sell that to the Boss" was the answer back.
"It's the facts," I said.
I rotated out of the position not long after that (not early, time was up). The course died on the vine after I left, as a sycophant replaced me. I know that's probably cliche to say, but it's true.