Predicting Is Pointless
Anticipate and Pattern Match Instead of Predicting the Future
Predicting the future with precision is futile. History shows time and again that even the most informed projections often miss the mark. Stop clinging to the illusion of precise foresight. Instead consider embracing a more adaptive and anticipatory approach, complemented by pattern matching.
A powerful reminder of this comes from a business leader’s insight from over 70 years ago. Mark Sullivan, the CEO of Pacific Telephone and Telegraph, shared a striking vision of the future of telephones in 1953. He stated:
“Just what form the future telephone will take is, of course, pure speculation. Here is my prophecy: In its final development, the telephone will be carried about by the individual, perhaps as we carry a watch today. It probably will require no dial or equivalent, and I think the users will be able to see each other, if they want, as they talk. Who knows but what it may actually translate from one language to another?”
This quote comes from The Tacoma News Tribune in April 1953. It is an example of the power of anticipation over prediction. Sullivan did not claim to know the exact future of telecommunications. Rather he anticipated the trends and possibilities. His vision seems to align with the modern reality of smartphones, which fit right in our pockets. Not only that, these wonders do the work of thousands of now obsolete devices.
Change is an inherent characteristic of our ever-evolving world. In today’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment, trying to predict the future is impossible. It is also counterproductive. So, what can we do instead? We can learn to anticipate and recognize patterns.
Understanding the OODA "loop" sketch allows us to anticipate and adapt to change with more effectiveness. We remain agile and adaptive in the face of uncertainty. This understanding enhances our ability to identify patterns within the observed data. This allows us to make more effective anticipations about what is ahead.
Pattern matching involves recognizing and analyzing recurring trends and behaviors. By identifying patterns, we can better understand the dynamics of change and make better decisions. This skill is crucial in a VUCA world, where understanding patterns can provide insights that pure speculation cannot.
Anticipation and pattern matching augments our capacity for free and independent action. It empowers us to navigate the complexities of the VUCA world and enhances our adaptability in any domain. Anticipation enables us to prepare for a range of possibilities rather than betting on a single outcome. Pattern matching helps us make sense of the data and trends we observe.
Mark Sullivan’s 1953 prophecy is a powerful reminder. Leaders cannot precisely predict the exact form innovations will take in the future. However, they don’t need to. By understanding the OODA "loop" sketch, and by refining our pattern matching skills, we can anticipate amid continuous change. We can maintain a competitive edge in whatever we do.
Embrace anticipation and pattern matching as our guiding conepts. By doing so, we align ourselves with the dynamic nature of our world and equip ourselves to thrive in VUCA. The future will always be unpredictable. And with the right frame of thinking, we can navigate it with confidence and agility.
