Doomed To Fail!
It's like a movie that did not live up to its hype.
“Linear OODA” is pervasive in military and business circles. It is not just incomplete, it can be catastrophic. Relying on it in complex, competitive environments can lead to disastrous results for individuals and teams. Reject "Linear OODA" with extreme prejudice. Instead, seek to understand John Boyd’s full OODA “loop” sketch as he envisioned and illustrated it. Boyd's emphasis on Orientation and Implicit Guidance and Control is how you hone your competitive edge. Those who grasp the depth of Boyd’s thinking will prevail. Those who don’t, will not.
At its most basic level, the “Linear OODA” model reduces Boyd’s ideas to a simple, step-by-step process. We see Observe, Orient, Decide, Act in a continuous circle. This makes it seem easy to understand, teach, and apply. But here’s the problem. The world is VUCA, not simple. It is not linear. And the OODA "loop" sketch, as Boyd envisioned it, was never meant to be linear. "Linear OODA" fails to account for complexity. The chaos and constant flux inherent in the real world are not considered.
The biggest flaw of "Linear OODA" is that it does not account for the importance of Orientation. In the simplified version, Orientation is only a step between Observation and Decision. It seems like a momentary pause before moving forward. But in Boyd’s OODA "loop" sketch, Orientation is everything. It’s not a step. It’s the cognitive operating system that shapes how we see, how we make sense, how we decide, and how we act. Orientation is what makes you, you. It’s unique to each individual, team, and culture. Orientation evolves as we interact with the world around us, in what Boyd called, wait for it.......The Whirl of Reorientation!
Those stuck in the “Linear OODA” mindset miss this in its entirety. They focus on Orientation the verb, something that happens fast and is then done. In reality, the focus should be on Orientation the noun. It is the lens through which we see the world. It is made up of our genetic heritage, cultural traditions, previous experiences, and new information. It is fluid, shifting as we gather feedback from our actions and our environment. Teams that fail to understand this are at a severe competitive disadvantage.
The absence of "Implicit Guidance and Control" in the "Linear OODA" model is another critical flaw. Boyd recognized that our Orientation shapes our decisions and actions, even when we aren’t consciously aware of it. This implicit process allows us to act with speed in fast-moving situations. In competitive environments, this is a decisive advantage. The "Linear OODA" model completely ignores this. It is disconnected from ongoing feedback.
Consider the world of sports. In basketball, the best teams don’t operate by strict, linear playbooks. They thrive on fluidity, instinct, and the ability to adapt to the chaos of a game. Effective teams don’t just observe, orient, decide, and act in a rigid sequence. Their years of experience and training have shaped their Orientation to the point where they can act almost without thinking. They react to the game in real-time, making adjustments on the fly, guided by implicit understanding. Teams that try to stick to rigid strategies—following the Linear OODA model—often fall apart under pressure. They can’t keep up when the game changes, and they can’t adapt fast enough.
In the capital markets, the difference between success and failure can be stark. It often comes down to how fast a trader or investor can adapt to changing market conditions. Markets are complex, nonlinear systems. Information is constantly flowing, and conditions shift without warning. Traders who rely on rigid models are like teams stuck in the “Linear OODA” mindset. They might see the market move, but they can’t reorient fast enough to take advantage of it. They freeze because their perception does not align with what is actually unfolding. By the time they make a decision, it’s too late.
The same is true in public relations. Crises are fast-moving, unpredictable, and complex. Companies that operate on "Linear OODA" will have rigid crisis-response plans. This often leads to huge mistakes. They issue statements too late, or they misread the public mood. By the time they react, the damage is done. In contrast, companies that understand Boyd’s OODA "loop" sketch can lead with dynamic response. They are ceonstantly reorienting based on new information.
In each of these cases the difference between success and failure comes down to how well leaders understand Boyd’s OODA "loop" sketch. Those who operate with a deep understanding of Orientation and IG&C are able to adapt. They can observe, decide, act, learn and thrive in asymmetric, nonlinear environments. Those who don’t are stuck in the rigidity of the "Linear OODA" model. They are slower to react, slower to adapt, and more likely to fail.
The cost of relying on the "Linear OODA" model is high. It leads to delayed reactions, rigid thinking, and failure to adapt in nonlinear environments. Teams and individuals that stick to this simplified version of Boyd’s ideas are at a significant disadvantage. They will always be outmaneuvered by those who understand the OODA "loop" sketch as Boyd drew it. They will operate with the fluidity, adaptability, and speed that Boyd envisioned.
In VUCA, those who rely on outdated, linear thinking lose. The teams and leaders who understand Boyd’s OODA "loop" sketch will dominate. They will see the world with clarity, decide with wisdom, and act with effectiveness. In the end, they will prevail.
Understanding the OODA "loop" is not some theoretical exercise. It’s a practical necessity for anyone competing in asymmetric, nonlinear environments. It doesn't matter if you are leading a team, managing a portfolio, or responding to a crisis. The ability to adapt with speed, based on real-time feedback is what will separate the winners from the losers. The choice is simple. Evolve your thinking, or get left behind.
Reject "Linear OODA." Reject it with extreme prejudice. Make the effort to learn and understand the OODA "loop" sketch as John Boyd envisioned it instead!
